Mortgage Rates to Remain Above 6% Through 2026, MBA Warns
Homebuyers and refinancers hoping for a swift return to low mortgage rates received sobering news at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) annual convention in Las Vegas. The trade group’s chief economist, Mike Fratantoni, delivered a clear message: mortgage rates will stay above 6% well into 2026.
The 10-Year Treasury Signals Higher Rates Ahead
Fratantoni pointed to the 10-year Treasury yield, currently ranging between 4% and 4.5%, as a key indicator. “That range points to mortgage rates going higher rather than lower,” he told attendees. The benchmark Treasury yield serves as a foundational reference for pricing 30-year fixed mortgages, and its current level supports elevated borrowing costs.
Inflation and Tariffs Dim Hopes for Relief
Economists at the convention dismissed expectations of a rapid drop below 6%. Persistent inflationary pressures, combined with the impact of tariffs, were cited as major obstacles. “After all that work to get inflation under control, it sure looks like it’s going the other way,” Fratantoni remarked.
Fed Cuts Won’t Be Enough to Lower Mortgage Costs
The MBA forecasts the Federal Reserve will implement two additional rate cuts before the end of this year and one more in 2026. However, these reductions are not expected to translate into meaningful relief for mortgage borrowers. The central bank’s actions, while supportive of broader economic conditions, will not offset the structural factors keeping long-term rates elevated.
6% Is the New Normal
For consumers, the takeaway is straightforward: the era of ultra-low mortgage rates has ended. According to the MBA, 6% now represents the baseline for the foreseeable future. Borrowers should plan accordingly, adjusting budgets and expectations in a higher-rate environment.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association convention remarks, Las Vegas